“Hurricane Beryl was the earliest CAT-5 Hurricane on record over the past 100 years, confirming that 2024 Hurricane Season will be an active one, in our view. We believe ocean surface temperature continues to be conducive for hurricane formation.”

 “Typically, if a weather event is large, the stocks with the most exposure react the most. We would expect companies with market share in catastrophe prone lines like home insurance and commercial multiple peril in Texas to fall the most.”

 “US recession is off the table for the next six months, and leading economic indicators suggest a broadening of global growth, undercutting the US exceptionalism narrative... The future path of inflation is key to navigate successfully the second half of the year. Inflation has been challenging to predict since the onset of the pandemic in 2020. However, it is becoming evident that inflation will not subside as quickly as central banks want, and there is a meaningful risk of its reacceleration due to a resilient labor market keeping services inflation elevated.”

 “Conditions could allow the Fed to lower rates at a slow pace... Economic growth could moderate without turning negative.”

 “We would expect there is price support for the stock among value investors who might perceive $260/share as a new floor as $149/share in book value per share should only be expected to grow over time.”