Nvidia Target $150, JPMorgan Bullish on Shopify

Key Takeaway

• Oppenheimer raised Nvidia's price target to $150, citing strong AI sector positioning and a potential 23% upside in 2024.
• JPMorgan initiated coverage on Shopify with an overweight rating and a $74 price target, highlighting its competitive advantages in e-commerce.
• Broader market context includes upcoming inflation data and Fed policy decisions, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite up 12.10% and 14.13% YTD.

Nvidia's Stock Split and Price Target Increase

Nvidia's recent 10-for-1 stock split has garnered significant attention from analysts and investors alike. Oppenheimer's analyst Rick Schafer reiterated an outperform rating on Nvidia and raised the price target to a split-adjusted $150 per share from $110. This new target implies a potential upside of more than 23% in 2024. Schafer's optimism is rooted in Nvidia's strong positioning in the AI sector, benefiting from its comprehensive AI hardware, networking, and software solutions.

"We see NVDA as best positioned in AI, benefiting from their full stack AI hardware, networking, and software solutions," Schafer stated. He also increased his 2024 and 2025 full-year earnings estimates to $2.62 and $3.32 per share, respectively, to account for the stock split. Schafer highlighted several structural tailwinds that could drive sustained outsized topline growth, particularly in high-performance gaming, datacenter/AI, and autonomous driving vehicles.

Evercore ISI's strategist Julian Emanuel also weighed in, noting that the history of other marquee tech stock splits often shows a pattern of initial rally followed by selloff and volatility, which resets the generational buying opportunity. Emanuel pointed out that similar dynamics have been observed in stocks of companies like Amazon, Tesla, and Apple. Evercore's semiconductor analyst Mark Lipacis emphasized that Nvidia is not just a semiconductor company but an ecosystem play for the parallel processing computing era, which could see it become 10-15% of the S&P 500 Index weighting.

JPMorgan's Bullish Stance on Shopify

JPMorgan has initiated coverage on Shopify with an overweight rating, describing it as the "online sale you don't want to miss." The bank set a price target of $74, implying a 17.4% upside from Monday's close. Despite Shopify's shares being down 19.1% this year, analyst Reginald Smith believes this decline presents a buying opportunity for investors.

"We believe Shopify's product breadth, ease of use, and scale are distinct competitive advantages that will continue to fuel industry-leading growth," Smith wrote. He projected an 18% compounded revenue growth through 2026, driven by the secular shift toward e-commerce and the scaling of growth initiatives. Smith's bullish outlook led to a 1% increase in Shopify shares following the initiation.

Broader Market Context

The broader market context also plays a role in these individual stock movements. Futures pointed to a soft start to the week for stocks, with macroeconomic news expected to be a key driver on Wednesday when inflation data and the Federal Reserve's policy decision are released. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have shown positive performance year-to-date, with gains of 12.10% and 14.13%, respectively.

Evercore's head of technical analysis, Rich Ross, noted that Nvidia's recent breakout above $1,000 per share (post-split $100) has "unlocked the door" to $1,500 (now $150). If investors accept Nvidia as the ecosystem play for the parallel processing computing era, the trend suggests it could become a significant portion of the S&P 500 Index.

Street Views

• Rick Schafer, Oppenheimer (Bullish on Nvidia):

  "We see NVDA as best positioned in AI, benefiting from their full stack AI hardware, networking, and software solutions... We see several structural tailwinds driving sustained outsized topline growth in high performance gaming, datacenter/AI and autonomous driving vehicles."

• Reginald Smith, JPMorgan (Bullish on Shopify):

  "We believe Shopify’s product breadth, ease of use, and scale are distinct competitive advantages that will continue to fuel industry-leading growth. We model 18% compounded revenue growth through ’26 as SHOP benefits from the secular shift toward e-comm and scales growth initiatives and think the recent pullback creates an attractive entry opportunity for new investors."