South Sudan Oil Crisis: Pipeline Rupture Threatens Stability

Key Takeaway

• South Sudan's oil pipeline rupture, crucial for 2/3 of its crude production, risks economic crisis and renewed violence.
• March saw oil output drop to 761,000 barrels from February's 3.13 million due to the damage.
• The loss of oil revenue threatens political stability and exacerbates an already dire humanitarian situation.

Pipeline Crisis Threatens South Sudan

A critical pipeline, responsible for exporting approximately two-thirds of South Sudan's crude oil, has suffered damage due to a diesel shortage, causing the crude to thicken and rupture the pipeline. This infrastructure is vital for the transportation of oil from South Sudan through Sudan, a country currently embroiled in a civil war. The International Crisis Group (ICG) warns that urgent repairs are needed to prevent the risk of renewed conflict in South Sudan, the world's newest nation, which gained independence in 2011.

Economic Fallout from Oil Disruption

South Sudan's main oil consortium, Dar Petroleum Operating Co., saw a dramatic decrease in production in March, with output dropping to 761,000 barrels from 3.13 million barrels in February. This decline has severe implications for the country's economy, heavily reliant on oil revenues, which constitute almost all government income. The ICG report highlights the potential for a deeper economic crisis and increased political tensions if the situation is not addressed. Civil servants have not been paid since October, and the South Sudanese pound has significantly depreciated against the dollar, exacerbating the country's economic woes.

Political Stability at Risk

The ICG emphasizes that oil revenue is crucial for maintaining the fragile peace among South Sudan's political elites, who are described as rivalrous. The report criticizes the management of oil proceeds, stating that they primarily fund a violent patronage network rather than benefiting the public. With the current halt in oil income, President Salva Kiir's government faces challenges in managing the nation's security forces, raising concerns about the potential for increased insecurity and violence.